Bitcoin (BTC): the hashrate plunges, where will the price go?

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The average Bitcoin network (BTC) hashrate has declined by 27% in two weeks. What caused this drop and what will be the consequences on the price of BTC?

As data from Blockchain.com shows , Bitcoin’s hashrate initiated its downfall around October 18. As it passed 146 pe / s, it dropped to 107 pe / s in the space of two weeks, its most dizzying dive this year:

Bitcoin’s hashrate thus returns to levels that it had not seen since June 2020. It should be noted that the two other major collapses of the hashrate in 2020 were due to the crash of the cryptocurrency markets at the start of the Covid-crisis. 19 last March, then during the Bitcoin halving in May.

How to explain this fall?

Several factors can explain this sudden drop. On the one hand, the mining difficulty started to rise again on October 17th. The difficulty was automatically readjusted by + 3.62%, making BTCs harder to produce. However, it should be noted that the difficulty had already increased by + 11.35% in September, which had not triggered such a drop in the hashrate.

This indicator must therefore be taken in conjunction with a meteorological trend. The rainy season has indeed ended in Sichuan in China, where a large number of mining farms are located. Local miners can no longer take advantage of particularly low electricity prices during the rainy season, which is why a certain number of them have stopped participating in the network.

Note also the long-term effects of Bitcoin halving, which can also be felt. Mining rewards have been halved since last May, which immediately eliminated some miners. The recent drop in hashrate may therefore also be due to a new wave of abandonment by minors who were hanging on until then.

Bitcoin (BTC) price on the rise

Yet the BTC price has been in great shape in recent days. This weekend, Bitcoin did indeed briefly exceed $ 14,000. This is a threshold he had not reached since January 2018, the period when he had known his all-time high, approaching $ 20,000.

Over the same period when the hashrate fell, the price of Bitcoin thus increased by + 22% :

This morning, the price of BTC exceeds $ 13,700, with a market cap of $ 253 billion. This corresponds to an increase of + 48% over the last twelve months . However, traders remain cautious: the results of the US presidential election fall this week, and disruptions are expected. The effect on traditional markets and cryptocurrencies could therefore be substantial.

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